AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): American airstrikes on an Iranian island near the Strait of Hormuz two nights ago once again brought the specter of war back to the region.
According to a report by Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed, these strikes undermined fragile understandings for de-escalation and increased risks in the world's most vital commercial and oil artery. Particularly as Iran quickly responded by firing ballistic missiles and drones, targeting American bases in several regional countries.
These developments immediately caused oil prices to surge again, with the price of each barrel of oil exceeding $90.
Mikael Alvaro, investment director at Gallo Partners Fund, has emphasized that this military tension creates a sustained risk premium in international markets and directly confronts the economies of Persian Gulf countries with disruptions in supply chains and reduced flow of energy and goods through the sensitive Strait of Hormuz.
Costs of the Crisis Beyond Rising Oil Prices
The economic consequences of these developments are not limited to the momentary rise in oil prices.
According to observers, the crisis could lead to a sustained increase in maritime risk premiums, war risk insurance costs, as well as higher maritime transportation costs.
Shipping data also shows that the passage of tankers and commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz remains at very low levels and is accompanied by significant risks.
The threat level is still assessed as very high, and many insurance companies are refusing to cover vessels that do not follow security guidelines.
Narrow Routes and Stranded Ships
Over the past four weeks, hundreds of tankers have attempted to navigate through the limited or blocked routes in the Strait of Hormuz.
This situation has continued while Iranian boats have stopped some vessels and warned them about entering the area.
For this reason, marine insurance analysts believe that the atmosphere of security uncertainty has made a return to normal shipping levels in the short term unattainable.
This issue increases the financial costs for shipowners and importers in the region.
Report of Tanker Striking a Naval Mine
Iranian television on Monday, citing a statement from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, announced that a large tanker had caught fire after striking two naval mines in the southern part of the Strait of Hormuz and had completely stopped moving.
The continued threat to shipping has placed additional pressure on energy exports of Persian Gulf countries, port operations, and non-oil trade.
The paralysis of maritime traffic has caused a large number of ships and sailors to accumulate in the waters of the Persian Gulf, finding themselves in a situation where they cannot safely exit the area.
This situation has also negatively affected foreign investor confidence. Investors are watching with concern the increasing operational and logistical risks and the rising cost of transporting finished products and intermediate goods to global markets.
Maximum Pressure Policy
In this context, Raed al-Masri, a political economy expert, told Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed that the return of escalation and military confrontation between America and Iran, especially after the expiration of the previous memorandum of understanding between the two sides, is not entirely unexpected.
According to him, Donald Trump's policies are moving toward maintaining intense military and economic pressure, without necessarily leading to a full-scale war.
Al-Masri believes this approach is pursued primarily with the aim of greater control over energy resources and countering China's growing influence in the region.
He says China supplies a significant portion of its oil needs from Iran, and this has led Washington to intensify sanctions and seek to prevent Iranian oil exports.
According to him, American pressure is no longer limited to economic sanctions, and military strikes have created a new phase of what he calls direct economic and military strangulation.
Long-Term Consequences for the Economies of Persian Gulf Countries
According to Raed al-Masri, these developments have negative long-term consequences for Persian Gulf countries.
The most important consequences include continued tension and insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz, increased transportation, shipping, and insurance costs, increased risk of direct targeting in military strikes, greater instability in oil prices, and increased uncertainty about the future of global energy markets.
In his view, these factors inevitably affect the stability of energy markets.
Who Benefits from Tension in Hormuz?
Al-Masri believes Trump is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the return of turmoil to the Strait of Hormuz.
According to him, America is less affected by the possible closure of Hormuz due to its relative self-sufficiency in energy, as well as its oil and gas exports.
He also believes the continuation of tension could allow Washington to sell its energy to Europe at higher prices and offer it as a substitute for Russian oil and gas.
Al-Masri sees this situation as creating opportunities for substantial profits in the energy market through speculative trading and activities.
Efforts to Redefine the Role of "OPEC+"
According to this political economy expert, the region faces a policy based on creating or escalating wars and tensions to achieve oil and political interests.
He believes Trump is trying to directly influence OPEC+'s operations and redefine the organization's mechanisms according to his own policies and tensions, rather than the market operating solely on traditional supply and demand mechanisms.
Al-Masri also pointed to America's influence over major energy resources in the Caribbean and Venezuela and its impact on developments in the Strait of Hormuz.
He concludes that the combination of these factors negatively affects the economies of Persian Gulf countries, their regional role, and investor confidence.
According to him, investors need a stable and secure environment, and the current situation has confronted regional countries with a new and dangerous reality, a reality that he says requires a fundamental reassessment of the flexibility of international relations and the strategies of these countries.
Pressure on Regional and Global Markets
In this context, Philip Shaw, chief economist at the global institute Investec, believes that the continuation of diplomatic deadlock and the escalation of military tension near the Strait of Hormuz impose direct and increasing economic costs on regional and international markets.
According to a report published by this institute, Shaw explained that the crisis moving toward long-term confrontation and continued disruption in this sensitive waterway increases the likelihood of a prolonged interruption in maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
According to him, such conditions will prevent a rapid decline in energy prices and will place sustained pressure on the costs of supplying goods and logistics services.
The Unclear Outlook of Hormuz
Overall, the renewed escalation of military tension around the Strait of Hormuz is not merely a security crisis, but could have far-reaching consequences for the global energy market, supply chains, and the economies of regional countries.
In a situation where ship passage continues to face restrictions and risks, insurance and transportation costs are rising, and oil prices are being affected by geopolitical uncertainties, the continuation of the crisis could impose a heavy cost not only on the economies of Persian Gulf countries but also on global markets.
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